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044, 95% CI 0.042 to 0.047; women 0.057, 95% CI 0.055 to 0.06. The final full models each include 90 df (65 main effects and 25 interactions) and 28 predictors (8 continuous). The DemPoRT algorithm is discriminating (C-statistic in validation data men 0.83 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.85); women 0.83 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.85)) and well-calibrated in a wide range of subgroups including behavioural risk exposure categories, socio-demographic groups and by diabetes and hypertension status. This algorithm will support the development and evaluation of population-level demen