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The trophic state index (TSI) and trophic level index (TLI) are commonly used methods for evaluating the eutrophication state of lakes and reservoirs. However, they are unable to overcome uncertainties such as calculation errors and spatial heterogeneity of evaluation indicators. To comprehensively evaluate the eutrophication state of a region, we introduce a probability density function and propose the stochastic trophic level index model (STLI). The probability density function of each trophic level is derived through the principle of