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High frequencies of alcohol and cannabis use at age 16 were both predicted by externalizing traits from ages 11 to 16, a family history of substance use problems and sensation seeking after controlling for other individual, environmental and familial variables. The association between familial substance use problems and substance use during adolescence was partially mediated by externalizing traits from age 11 to 16. The present findings provide prospective evidence for a developmental risk pathway for adolescent substance use, potentially identifying those