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Objective To develop and validate a prediction model for excess pregnancy weight gain using early pregnancy factors. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting We recruited from 12 obstetrical, family medicine, and midwifery centers in Ontario, Canada. Participants We recruited English-speaking women with singleton pregnancies between 8+0-20+6 weeks. Of 1296 women approached, 1050 were recruited (81%). Of those, 970 women had complete data (970/1050, 92%) and were recruited at a mean of 14.8 weeks. Primary outcome measure We collected data