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Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) was used to model the response of mayfly species to important gradients and identify thresholds of change. Site-specific characteristic were the most important predictor of mayfly diversity, and there was considerable variation over time, with mayfly diversity peaking during winter. Along this, gradient temperature was the best predictor of assemblage structure, with five out of six reliable indicator species being cold-adapted, and a community threshold response at 19°C. Results support laborato