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Hindcast OOS accuracies were low (37-50%); however, we found forecasting using environmental variables may be useful in predicting the timing of early summer blooms. This study reinforces the efficacy of machine learning to determine important drivers of harmful algal blooms, although more complex models incorporating other parameters such as toxicokinetics are likely needed for accurate regional forecasts.The frequent occurrence and long-term duration of Microcystis harmful algal blooms (HABs) are of great concern. Chemical flocculati
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