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enomenological models have been to complete epidemics. However, evaluation of such models based simply on their fit to observed data may give only a partial picture, and cross validation against actual trends is also valuable. Similarly, it may be preferable to model incidence rather than cumulative data, although this raises questions about suitable error densities for modelling often erratic fluctuations. Hence, there may be utility in evaluating alternative error assumptions.Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first discovered in