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In the validation cohort, the high-risk group (≥ 3 points) had a significantly higher risk of PEP compared to the low- or intermediate-risk groups under the post-ERCP risk prediction model (low 2.0%; intermediate 3.4%; high 18.4%), while there was no significant between-group difference under the pre-ERCP risk prediction model (low 2.2%; intermediate 3.8%; high 6.9%). We developed and validated pre-ERCP and post-ERCP risk prediction models. In the latter, the high-risk group had a higher risk of PEP development than the low- or interme
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