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" We reviewed programmatic documents from Pakistan for the period from 2012-2017, recording whether districts was categorized as "high threat" or "low threat" in every year. Through document review, we developed a choice tree to explain the ranking decisions. Then, integrating information from the World wellness Organization and international Polio Eradication Initiative, we built a Bayesian decision network showing investments in polio surveillance and immunization campaigns, surveillance metrics, ill