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Assuming that everything else is equal, both decision rules are predicted to decrease long-term expenditure growth. Convergence of the two decision rules would require, among others, ruling out waste in the 'ideal' NICE's approach and, for IQWiG's approach, using the same relative weights for life expectancy and health-related quality of life as the quality-adjusted-life-year model. CONCLUSION This article shows that both decision rules have notable commonalities in terms of inferring the willingness to pay from existing care and the projec