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These results highlight the difficulty to transfer models from native to introduced ranges across taxonomically related species, making it difficult to predict future invasions and range expansion.This study's objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 200
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