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To estimate the probability over the next decade of a CME, we fit a Poisson distribution to the complementary cumulative distribution function. We inferred a decadal probability of between 0.01 and 0.09 for an event of at least the size of the large 2012 event, and a probability between 0.0002 and 0.016 for the size of the 1859 Carrington event. © 2020 Society for Risk Analysis.Despite international commitments to end female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C), very little is known about the effectiveness of national policies in contribut
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