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Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China. We developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivari