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84 and 0.79, 0.77, and 0.74, respectively, as compared with 0.81, 0.79, and 0.76 for Kaplan-Meier prognostication using the 8th edition of the TNM staging system. Conclusions We have developed parsimonious models for predicting the absolute risks of metastatic death from choroidal melanoma that take into account competing causes of death and which compare favorably with the current version of the TNM staging system. There is a need for further studies to validate the use of these models in situations where use of the TNM or LUMPO is not