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The prevalence of nonunion after a proximal humeral fracture (PHF) and the risk factors for its occurrence are poorly defined. We aimed to estimate the rate of nonunion in nonoperatively treated patients and to produce a clinical model for its prediction. Two thousand two hundred and thirty adult patients (median age, 72 years [range, 18 to 103 years]; 75.5% were female) with a PHF underwent assessment of fracture union using standard clinical evaluation and conventional radiographs. We assessed the prevalence of nonunion and measured the
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