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The best BN, achieved by using the more site-specific musculoskeletal symptom sub-groups, was 76% accurate in predicting the development of PsA in a test set and had an AUC of 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.75). The presented BN model may be a useful method to identify clusters of symptoms that predict the development of PsA with reasonable accuracy. Using a BN approach, we have shown that there are several symptoms which are predecessors of PsA, including fatigue, specific types of pain, and swelling. The presented BN model
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