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Sixty-three percent of statistically significant results (119/189) had an FPR greater than 5%, and 18% (35/189) had an FPR greater than 50%. Changing the prior probability from skeptical to optimistic reduced the median FPR from 29% (25th-75th percentile, 9%-56%) to 2% (25th-75th percentile, 0.6%-7.0%). CONCLUSION High-quality RCTs using null-hypothesis significance testing often overestimated treatment effects. The median FPR was 9% in 1 in 10 trials, the researchers falsely concluded that there was a treatment effect. Future RCTs in
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