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This study investigated the variability in the worst-case scenario (WCS) and suggested a framework to improve the definition and guide further investigation. Optical tracking data from 26 male players across 38 matches were analysed to determine the WCS for total distance, high-speed running (5.5 m.s-1) and sprinting (7.0 m.s-1) using a 3-minute rolling window. Position, total output, previous epoch, match half, time of occurrence, classification of starter vs substitute, and minutes played were modelled as selected contextual fa