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Although trends in opioid-related death rates in the United States have been described, the association between state-level opioid overdose death rates in early waves and substance-related overdose death rates in later waves has not been characterized. We examined the relationship between state-level opioid overdose death rates at the beginning of the crisis (1999-2004) and overdose death rates for opioids and other substances in later years. Using 1999-2018 multiple cause of death data from the Centers for Disease Control and Preventi